You Gotta Pay For What You Break: Washington fans get their wish, or did they?

 

hi-res-72248a4ba3cacf73b2b79587524554e0_crop_north

Tuesday night, I went to a Wizards game with my pops. On our way home, we listened to the President’s State of the Union address on the radio. In my mind, I began writing the preamble for a basketball column. Football and the woeful Washington Redskins were one of the last things on my mind.

And then I checked my phone and all hell broke loose.

Alex Smith was in. Kendall Fuller was out. Then Fuller wasn’t out. Then, he was out for real. Kirk Cousins is all but gone. Watching big stories break in real-time is not a proposition for the weak-stomached. Like some half-baked Onion article gone haywire, the whole thing feels surreal.

In the 24 hours since the Trade, I listened to the local blowhards vent over the airwaves. Every now and then, you can extrapolate useful tidbits from the fire and brimstone. And, this time, I wanted to gauge the mood of the town, as the Kirk Cousins Saga winds to a close.

After all, they’ve spent what feels like a decade debating whether number eight is worth the payday that everyone knew was destined to befall him anyway. It’s not our wealth being spent, but every Snyder dollar feels like a piece of our own hide.

Therefore, fans were practically sprinting down the Beltway to chase Kirk out of town.  The mentality was: he’s good, but he’ll never be Drew Brees, so he’s not worth the money.

Yesterday, they seemed to be singing a different tune.  Here are three of the most common refrains I heard.  I’ll break them down, individually:

1) They Should Have Paid Cousins

I probably could have predicted fans’ opinions would take a 180 turn.  After all, time has a way of smoothing out the blemishes and softening the rough edges (speaking of short memories, one caller even called Snyder cheap!). I just didn’t expect it to begin so soon.

They could have bitten the bullet and paid Cousins two years ago, but they decided to gamble on him struggling, at which point they could pay him what they felt was fair value.  But Cousins called their bluff in a game of gamble chicken, betting the opposite.  Well, nearly 9,000 passing yards later, it’s the Redskins with burgundy egg on their faces.

There is no “fair” value for the game’s most-valued position, which the team stubbornly refused to acknowledge, even as the salary cap continued to rise.  The 2018 salary cap has been projected to be $174-178 million by some outlets. That’s a 5% increase from 2017, and about 25% from 2014.

This is why you overpay quarterbacks in today’s market, because you’ll hate tomorrow’s market X amount more.  It’s econ 101-level stuff.

For example, let’s look at Alex Smith’s new contract extension: $94 million over four seasons, $71 million guaranteed. Those figures are dizzying for the average American, but a trio of upcoming deals is ready to blow them out of the water. Their names: Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers.

The Redskins could have kept Kirk for Derek Carr money if they’d offered it, two years ago. If you do the math, they will end up paying that same money to Smith; it’s just structured differently.

2) Alex Smith is a worse version of Cousins

Alex Smith has yet to take a single snap in Washington (in fact, he isn’t officially a member of the team for another month), but the boo birds have already begun circling above Landover.  Welcome to Washington, Alex.

Here lies the epicenter of the nation’s political sphere.  We live and breathe in four-year cycles. The next savior is always on the horizon, before he/she is spat out in favor of the next great thing.  And, the reigns of those who came before are usually painted with rosy colors.

Smith won’t get a fair shake, even if they win nine games, there will be naysayers popping up to say Cousins could have won ten.  Fans will greet him with one hand on their holster, ready to shoot at the first sign of trouble.  I wonder if he isn’t already playing The New Basement Tapes on repeat.

The further passage of time will only serve to deify Cousins’ Washington legacy, putting him atop the pack of the Trent Green’s and Brad Johnson’s of the world – good quarterbacks who left and had some success elsewhere.

I don’t really see them as being all that similar.

Smith (at least in his younger days) is a true, dual-threat quarterback. Take a look at quarterback rushing yard leaders from the past five seasons if you don’t believe me:

QB Rushing Yards Since 2013

  1. Cam Newton: 2875
  2. Russell Wilson: 2787
  3. Colin Kaepernick: 1886
  4. Alex Smith: 1673
  5. Blake Bortles: 1447

One term pops up often in describing Smith: game manager.  Cousins seemed to have a bit more gunslinger in him.  Game manager is usually not used as a term of endearment, while gunslinger has both positive and negative connotations.

After all, one thing we’ve learned about Cousins over the years is that you can pressure him into making really bad throws.  By contrast, only a handful of quarterbacks have a lower, career interception-percentage than Smith, and three are likely ticketed for Canton (Tom Brady, Rodgers and Wilson).

Also, compared to the at times-unhinged persona displayed by Cousins, Smith seems to display the air of a valet handing over your keys. He will have to maintain that, because he is being airdropped into a decidedly-worse situation.

In Kansas City, he’s been what I call a “bubble boy quarterback”: one who can succeed, but has to be encased in a safe environment (the most recent example of this: Case Keenum).

Now, he’s leaving the bubble, which means waving goodbye to the Jamaal Charles’ or Kareem Hunts of the world.  And, I don’t think Jamison Crowder is about to be confused with Tyreek Hill anytime soon.

3) We’re a quarterback away from contention

Of all the narratives, this is probably the most egregious.  Or, perhaps people have already forgotten last season.

The Chiefs have a loaded defense, which the Redskins definitely do not have.  And, now Washington is in danger of losing two starting cornerbacks, because some team (the Jets?) is going to throw an awful lot of money Bashaud Breeland’s way.

Come draft day, they’ll have to balance this new area of weakness against their equally dire need for a dominant pass rusher and an explosive running back.

They can’t necessarily go out and buy them because they have big commitments to players like Josh Norman and Ryan Kerrigan.  Meanwhile, the clock on left tackle Trent Williams continues to tick.

The Alex Smith contract saves them some cap room, but it’s really not much less than what they would have paid Cousins on a long term deal.  And, they’ve turned two positions of strength (quarterback, cornerback) into question marks.

Hopefully, they’ll use the freed up cap space to resign free agents such linebacker Zach Brown.  If they don’t, then I really don’t know what the point of all this was.

Leave a comment